Grand Rapids Mortgage Company

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS opened up as high as 100-10 before 9am, trends still developing The 10yr took a nice "baby bounce" off yesterday's low yield as a MAJOR pivot gains evidence as support Wow Wow Wee Wow, look at the S&P chart! (update at 9:07am): Treasuries lovin' it. MBS falter a bit(struck by lighting) Since this is all charts, let me know if you want more discussion on something particular! Wow Wow We Wow!…(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning. How in the world does Georgetown lose in round 1?!?!?!? They aren't the only ones heading back to class early though. 13 seed Murray State beat 4 seed Vandy. Marquette, who was a five seed, couldn't get passed no.11 Washington. Notre Dame, the six seed lost to Old Dominion. Meanwhile, Nova just barely pulled out a nail biter against Robert Morris and New Mexico, who had their second lowest point total on the season, found a way to squeak one out against 14 seed Montana. Bracketology gets interesting from here…especially with the Hoyas down and out. Did you call any of these upsets? What shocker did you forecast for day 2? The econ calendar is quiet today, making secretive tourney watching that much easier…COUGH COUGH HERE IS THE LINK COUGH COUGH Both benchmark 10s…(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After the TIPS auction just over an hour ago, there is little left to provide guidance for rates. That's not an entirely bad thing today as the 4.5 is up 6 ticks at 100-13, and the 4.0 slightly better up 9 ticks to 97-10. This represents a moderate amount of tightening as the yield curve is nearly unchanged with nothing from 2's to 10's off by more than 2 ticks. That puts the 10yr at 3.78 at the moment, moderately better than most of Friday's range, but a bit weaker than the shallow end-of-day rally. Your best visual on the notion of NARROWNESS (which tends to coincide with low volatility + lack of guidance) is the mere 2bp range in Tsy's, and about a 5 and a half tick range in MBS prices. In other words, not much happenin, for better or worse, but we'll let you know…(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The FN 4.5 coupon has fallen further to the lows of the day at 100-10 as the benchmark 10 year treasury note has broken support and is currently at 3.80. Reprices for the worse will be coming….(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

DID I MENTION THUNDER SNOW ! By the look of the charts, it doesnt look like we should be expecting any noticeable improvements today in rates momentum. This price downtrend started last Friday by the way….we are just extending it. The FN 4.0 is -0-08 at 98-08 yielding 4.169% and the FN 4.5 is -0-05 at 101-08 yielding 4.375%. The secondary market current coupon is 2bps higher on the day at 4.313%. The current coupon yield is 72.4 bps over the 10yr TSY note yield and 62.6 bps over the 10yr swap rate. MBS yields are moderately tighter vs. benchmark yields this morning. The 3.375 coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is -0-06 at 98-06 yielding 3.594% (+2.3 bps from 5pm marks on Friday). The 2s/10s curve is unchanged at the 280bp pivot. The dollar index is weaker vs. a basket of currencies….-0.37…(read more)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

OK, so no one is really lying. It's just that MBS did not, in fact, adhere to their more narrow short-term range today. At least not as far as the prices themselves are concerned. But by the time the effects of volume, flows, and the clock are considered, it's a different story. In other words, as per usual, volume tapered off after mid-day and the buoyancy is in part a function of those thin conditions (because fewer trades comprise a bigger percentage of the activity, thus exerting inordinate forces on price). Factor that in with sellers having gotten their fill early and often, and there's not much for the indicated price to do, but move up. The reality of the pre-NFP range is much more realistically represented in the 10yr chart: The 10yr approached that inflectional area just…(read more)